Within our allocation we use the following indices:

• DM Equities: MSCI World Mid & Large Cap Index, Total Return, USD unhedged
• EM Equities: MSCI Emerging Mid & Large Cap Index, Total Return, USD unhedged
• DM bonds: ICE BAML World Sovereign Index, Total Return, USD hedged
• Global IG Corporate Credit: ICE BAML Global Corporate Index, Total Return, USD hedged
• Global HY Corporate Credit: ICE BAML Global High Yield Index, Total Return, USD unhedged
• EM LC Bonds: Vaneck JP Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF, Total Return, USD unhedged
• EM HC bonds: ICE BAML Emerging Markets External Sovereign Index, Total Return, USD unhedged
• DM REITs: FTSE NAREIT Index, Total Return, USD unhedged
• Cash: ICE BAML Treasury Bill Index, Total Return, USD unhedged

The global 60/40 benchmark weights are as follows:

• DM Equities: MSCI World Mid & Large Cap Index, Total Return, USD unhedged, 60%
• DM Bonds: ICE BAML World Sovereign Index, Total Return, USD hedged, 40%

• Cross Asset: Take some profit, but stay risk-on – Our pro-risk tilt is intact. Upward revisions to still solid US growth, a cyclical upturn in productivity growth, and the broadening of investment beyond AI will support risk assets in H2. But with much of the upside we’d positioned for now priced in, we trim our risk positions while retaining a long bias to risk assets overall.
• Cross Asset: Gold is a 2027 story – stay neutral – We're tactically neutral on gold. Valuations are stretched, speculative net inflows from retail investors have tapered off, and higher US bond yields have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold.
• Cross Asset: Bretton Woods 3.0 – The new world order – Bretton Woods 2.0 is dead. The debt-for-cheap goods exchange that characterised the post-Cold War relationship between the US and China peaked in 2008. US voter dissatisfaction dealt it a mortal blow.
• Cross Asset: Positioning for the next leg up in markets – Stay overweight equities. The US growth story is largely intact. We forecast US GDP growth will remain resilient at 1.9% in 2026, rising to an above-consensus 2.7% in 2027, underpinned by a renewed fiscal impulse, continued AI investment, and an ongoing cyclical upturn in productivity.
• Cross Asset: Quick Take - March will mark the low for the year – We think March will mark the low point for US equities this year as the extreme geopolitical risk left tail has been priced out.

Analysis and information provided to clients by Oxford Economics through its macro strategy services is for research purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or buy any security or a recommendation to do so. Research and publications provide information and analysis that Oxford Economics believes to be accurate and are published with the understanding that neither the analyst nor Oxford Economics are providing investment advice; anyone who needs investment advice should consult an investment professional.