GAA Fixed Income Track Record
We present the performance of our fixed income asset allocation, including on the slope of the yield curve, which highlights our preferences within the universe of advanced economies. Our portfolio is evaluated against widely recognised benchmarks (detailed below) to provide clients with clear, real-time insight into the effectiveness of our allocation strategies.
Our Fixed Income views are detailed in our monthly Global Asset Allocation report, available exclusively to clients of Oxford Economics.
Within our G10 rates allocation we use 7–10-year USD-hedged total return indices from BAML ICE to calculate performance. By using USD-hedged returns, rather than local currency returns, we ensure that our allocations are actionable for international investors of any base currency.
We evaluate the performance of our overweight allocations vs the comparator US Treasury index (7-10 year)
Fixed Income Curve Views Performance
For our G10 curve allocations, we measure performance by tracking the change in yield spread between the 7–10-year and 1–3-year BAML ICE indices. Curve allocations represent relative value strategies, and their performance is assessed against a zero benchmark, reflecting their market-neutral nature.
Key Fixed Income & Rates Views
- Fixed Income: Treasuries to remain range bound – We think stagflationary tensions will be short-lived, giving way to a continued disinflationary boon for the US economy over the course of 2026.
- Fixed Income: Why private credit returns will continue to unravel – We expect broad US private credit (PC) returns to be negative, with investors experiencing up to a cumulative further 10% loss over the next two years. We estimate that 25–35% of PC portfolios are subject to AI disruption risk, and this is unlikely to be adequately reflected in current marks.
- Fixed Income: Quick Take - Lean against market pricing of UK rate hikes – The market repricing of Bank of England rate hikes is overdone, and two-year gilt yields have overshot; we look to fade the move.
- Fixed Income: Why surging hyperscaler debt is nothing to lose sleep over – We estimate US-dollar public debt issuance by hyperscalers will rise to between $115bn-$160bn in 2026, up from $98bn in 2025. But we don't believe the surge in hyperscaler investment grade borrowing is a cause for worry.
- Fixed Income: We still like high-yield credit – We maintain our overweight on high-yield credit, even though we expect spreads to remain range-bound.