Macro Strategy Themes Trades: Live
We present a comprehensive list of all open and recently closed tactical trades across FX, equities, fixed income, and cross asset. Each trade is backed by in-depth analysis from our Macro Strategy Themes publications, with direct links available exclusively to clients.
| Date | Publication/Trade Details | Description/Rationale | *Return | Unit | Asset | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 May 26 | AI bottleneck smasher portfolio | The most attractive opportunities in this next AI buildout phase lie in bottleneck relief. Our AI Bottleneck Smasher Portfolio captures this through three equal-weighted baskets: grid developers, connectivity and hardware suppliers, and next-generation satellite manufacturers. | 15.78 | % | EQ | OPEN |
| 23 Mar 26 | 2s10s gilts steepener | The market repricing of Bank of England rate hikes is overdone, and two-year gilt yields have overshot; we look to fade the move. Our baseline is still a hold. A 2s10s curve steepening should follow. | 12.00 | bps | FI | OPEN |
| 08 Jan 26 | Overweight US industrials | We expect cyclicals to benefit from resilient growth. Financials and industrials are well-placed to outperform, whilst there are modest upside risks to consumer stocks if lawmakers modify tariffs or pass another reconciliation bill to address voters' affordability concerns. | 2.24 | % | EQ | OPEN |
| 04 Dec 25 | 2026 Top Trade: Overweight EM vs DM sovereign debt | We expect term premia to narrow, supported by broader disinflation. In DMs, inflation expectations are set to remain sticky, and policy has already reached terminal rates among key majors (Eurozone, Switzerland, Australia). | 0.03 | % | FI | OPEN |
| 01 Sep 25 | Overweight Eurozone banks | We think Eurozone banks will continue to outperform the region's broader equity market. The sector was the standout performer in the Q2 earnings season, and we think its relatively strong EPS momentum will persist. | 9.10 | % | EQ | OPEN |
Data Sources & Methodology
Within our allocation we use indices from the following sources to calculate performance:
- Fixed Income: BAML ICE Indices via Macrobond
- Foreign Exchange (FX): Forward returns via Macrobond
- Equities: MSCI indices via Macrobond
- Derivatives (Futures, Forwards, Options): Bloomberg
Macro Strategy Themes Trades: Recently Closed
| Closed On | Publication/Trade Details | Description | *Return | Unit | Asset | Opened On |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jun 26 | Short GBP/USD | We expect GBP/USD to consolidate at current levels over the summer, before converging to the 1.25-1.30 range in Q4. GBP/USD was driven by dollar weakness, rather than underlying pound strength in H1. Our fundamental valuation anchors now point to an overvalued pound. | 1.42 | % | FX | 08 Jul 25 |
| 09 Jun 26 | UST 10s30s to steepen | We think that fiscal impulse will result in higher term premia via higher nominal growth, fiscal sustainability concerns, and threats to US institutions. That should result in a steeper 10s30s slope. | -4.00 | bps | FI | 20 Jun 25 |
| 09 Jun 26 | Long 10y Bunds over BTPs | We think the convergence of the BTP/Bund spread is nearing an end and estimate the spread will be higher than current levels by year end. Our spread model suggests a fair value in the 120-140 bps range. | -10.17 | bps | FI | 12 Jun 25 |
| 09 Jun 26 | US vs Germany USD unhedged | We remain underweight Germany, as we think the market's strong year-to-date outperformance is at odds with its weak EPS momentum. We expect it to give back some of its relative gains in the near term. | 20.85 | % | EQ | 19 May 25 |
| 03 Jun 26 | Short EURNOK | The favourable energy outlook, alongside a widening real rate differential with the ECB and robust domestic demand growth, should support Krone strength relative to the Euro. Our risk reversal signal indicates bullish sentiment on EURNOK is set to fade. | 2.36 | % | FX | 17 Mar 26 |
| 26 May 26 | 2026 Top Trade: Overweight US financials | US equities are set to outperform, though we think it prudent to partially diversify away from tech as greater scrutiny on AI investment growth could trigger volatility. We think financials are well placed as they are likely to benefit from deregulation and a cyclical upturn in loan growth. | -10.90 | % | EQ | 04 Dec 25 |
| 19 Mar 26 | Short 10y JGBs | We remain underweight JGBs owing to sticky inflation, quantitative tightening, continued large budget deficits, and policy uncertainty. | 60.00 | bps | FI | 02 Sep 25 |
| 17 Mar 26 | Long AUD/USD | We expect the Aussie dollar will continue to appreciate against the US dollar, driven by fundamentals moving in the Aussie dollar's favour (September). We think risks are skewed towards further tightening following the RBA hiking rates by 25bps on Tuesday (February). | 6.42 | % | FX | 10 Sep 25 |
| 16 Mar 26 | Overweight Japanese Equities | We remain overweight Japanese equities. The market has rallied sharply since the US-Japan trade deal, but we think valuations are still attractive given Japan's improving profitability and low bond yields. | 15.99 | % | EQ | 03 Oct 25 |
| 16 Feb 26 | Short 30y Canadian bonds | We see little reward for risk in Canadian bonds, reflecting our underweight in our latest Global Asset Allocation. We see no near-term relief for fixed income following the 2025 budget, given increased risks of fiscal slippage alongside a phase of stagflationary surprises. | -13.00 | bps | FI | 11 Dec 25 |
| 18 Dec 25 | Sell gold call options at $4,200 | We think the recent correction in gold is likely to continue. We believe traditional drivers of spot gold prices and the 'debasement trade' fails to fully explain recent price action, and as such, we expect some volatility in the short term and no further price gains in 2025. | -161.97 | bps | FX | 27 Oct 25 |
| 10 Dec 25 | Sell March 2027 SOFR futures | We disagree with the destination for the fed funds rate, rather than the pace of cuts priced into markets, and see value in selling March 2027 SOFR futures. | 30.39 | bps | FI | 12 Sep 25 |