Equities Track Record
We present the performance of our equity asset allocation, which highlights our allocation preferences within the universe of advanced economies. Our portfolio is evaluated against a widely recognised global benchmark to provide clients with clear, real-time insight into the effectiveness of our allocation strategies.
Our specific preferences within G10 equity markets and full details of our equity strategy views are available in our Global Asset Allocation report, available exclusively to clients of Oxford Economics.
Within our G10 equity allocation we use MSCI USD-unhedged total return indices to calculate performance. By using USD-unhedged returns, rather than local currency returns, we ensure that our allocations are actionable for international investors of any base currency.
We evaluate the performance of our overweight allocations against the MSCI global equity USD-unhedged benchmark.
Key Equity Strategy Views
- Equities: Buying the dips in a supportive macro environment – We remain overweight US equities as we believe stronger-than-expected growth and continued disinflation will support further gains this year.
- Equities: Beneficiaries of a broadening investment upturn – We expect the US investment boom to broaden beyond AI this year, supported by low corporate borrowing costs, rising profitability, and fiscal incentives. Industrials, financials and materials are well placed to gain from this trend.
- Equities: Trade tensions add to Eurozone exporters' woes – Eurozone export-oriented equities are suffering from the recent escalation in US-EU trade tensions. We think they will remain under pressure as renewed uncertainty adds to significant existing headwinds.
- Equities: Strong growth to counter midterm uncertainty – We remain overweight US equities as we expect the US economy to outperform consensus this year. Although stocks often struggle in the months leading up to US midterm elections, the macro backdrop matters.
- Equities: Sector Strategy – Cautious sentiment offers opportunities – Our sector sentiment indicators suggest that investors have turned more cautious towards cyclicals over the past month. We think this shift is premature as we expect the US economy to outperform consensus expectations over the next year.