Systematic Strategy Tools
This page provides access to the white papers detailing our proprietary Systematic Strategy Tools. These frameworks form the quantitative foundation that informs the asset allocation decisions for our Global Asset Allocation (GAA) service. The GAA combines Oxford Economics' macroeconomic forecasts with our strategists' market expertise to produce asset allocation and investment strategy analysis for multiple asset classes for long-term and tactical investors.
- Global Cross Asset Frameworks Chartbook - February 2026 – Our overall cross asset framework stays risk-on in February with our short-term signal in positive territory, suggesting risk assets will outperform defensive assets. We think 2026 will see improving growth driven by continued AI investment, robust consumer spending, and ongoing disinflation, an environment supportive of risk assets.
- FX: Our FX positioning model delivers strong returns – We find that positioning in leveraged funds' FX futures contracts reveals information about future currency moves.
- Fixed Income: Relative value strategies are king in data-dependent markets – The volatility injected into fixed income markets due to central bank's data-dependent policy approach suggests relative value strategies should continue to perform solidly.
- Fixed Income: Our enhanced fixed income framework delivers superior returns – Our newly-launched multi-factor scorecard systematically captures the key drivers of 10-year bond returns across the cycle. Going forward, it will inform our monthly fixed income Global Asset Allocation (GAA) report.
- Fixed Income: Incorporating fiscal policy expectations in yield valuations – A key innovation of our framework – the latest addition to our asset allocation suite of models – is that it explicitly captures the term premium channel of fiscal policy: looser fiscal stances push up long-end yields far more than short-term rates. A 1ppt of GDP improvement in the projected primary balance over the next five years compresses bond yields by up to 50bps, with a smaller but material effect in advanced economies relative to EMs.
- Cross Asset: Our new macro regime indicator suggests buying the dips – Macro regimes are pivotal drivers of cross-asset performance, meaning it's critical to anticipate them correctly. Our new macro regime indicator formalises that intuition to outperform the average annualised return of a 60/40 portfolio by 2.3%, with little additional risk.
- Cross Asset: Our new valuation framework favours EM debt over DM equities – Our new valuation framework suggests that most risk assets are expensive compared to historic norms, but we see value in EM local currency debt.
- Cross Asset: How our systematic signals can help enhance performance – Our cross asset framework is based on five proprietary indicators (economic cycle, credit impulse, financial stress, relative valuation, and sentiment) and guides our monthly cross-asset risk appetite in our flagship Global Asset Allocation (GAA) reports.
- Equities: Sector Strategy – investing across macro regimes – We show how our new macro regime indicator can be used to inform sector allocations. A strategy that selects US industry groups based on the growth and inflation regime implied by our forecasts has outperformed an equal-weighted benchmark by 4% annualised since 2005.
- Equities: Signals from sentiment – We introduce a new sector sentiment indicator, incorporating signals from sector-oriented ETF flows and sell-side analyst stock recommendations. This can help identify herd-like behaviour and produce contrarian trade ideas.
- Equities: Macro signals and sector allocations – Our macro signals currently point to an overweight of the more cyclical parts of the market, particularly Materials and Financials. This is consistent with our broader sector allocation framework.
- Equities: Introducing lead indicators for EPS growth – We introduce a set of leading indicators for global sectors' EPS growth. We add these to our broader equity allocation framework to help inform our global sector views.
- Equities: Sector Strategy – Cautious sentiment offers opportunities – Our sector sentiment indicators suggest that investors have turned more cautious towards cyclicals over the past month. We think this shift is premature as we expect the US economy to outperform consensus expectations over the next year.